A former NBA executive has forecasted the Dallas Mavericks to miss the 2027 NBA postseason, projecting an 11th-place finish in the Western Conference. This prediction arrives as the team prepares for its next preseason test against the New Orleans Pelicans on October 14, following a split in two exhibition games with the Houston Rockets. The Mavericks' final preseason outing was a 132-115 victory over Houston on October 11, bouncing back from a 117-135 loss to the same opponent just two days earlier.
John Hollinger, a former NBA executive and current analyst, sees the Mavericks landing outside the playoff picture. He specifically projects Dallas to finish 11th in the West, ahead of only the New Orleans Pelicans, Memphis Grizzlies, LA Clippers, and Sacramento Kings. Hollinger's model suggests the team will improve its win total by ten games to reach a .500 record of 36-36. But that mark would still leave them one game short of qualifying for the Play-In Tournament, a scenario he finds likely for this developing squad.
He acknowledges the roster's talent but believes the timeline is off by a year. "There’s enough talent to stay in the Play-In chase all season, and the long-term future is bright," Hollinger wrote. "But we might have to wait another year for a winning record." The core of his skepticism revolves around integrating major changes, including a new head coach in Dusty May and a new team president in Masai Ujiri.
Substantial optimism stems from the development of second-year star Cooper Flagg and the return of veteran guard Kyrie Irving. Flagg is coming off a historic rookie campaign that has reshaped expectations for the franchise's immediate future. Irving, meanwhile, is set to return after missing the entire 2025-26 season rehabbing a torn ACL. His playmaking and scoring are seen as vital for a playoff push.
The front office also focused on adding specific skills this offseason. They brought in more three-point shooting, overhauled the backup point guard spot behind Irving, and added defensive versatility in the frontcourt. These moves are designed to create a more balanced and modern roster capable of competing in a loaded Western Conference.
The largest question mark surrounds the long-term fit of Kyrie Irving alongside the younger core led by Flagg. The significant age difference between the two stars leads to constant speculation around the league. Many observers wonder if the Mavericks will consider trading Irving near the deadline, especially if the team is not firmly in the postseason race.
Hollinger's prediction hinges on this instability and the time needed for a new coaching staff to implement its system. If the Mavericks struggle out of the gate and are not competitive by mid-season, moving Irving for future draft capital could become a logical step. That would signal a shift in focus, effectively ending any realistic playoff hopes for this year.
Dallas showed both promise and inconsistency in its two preseason games against the Houston Rockets. They suffered a tough 117-135 loss on October 9, but responded emphatically with a 132-115 win on October 11. The split provides a small, recent data point as they finalize rotations before the real games begin. The immediate focus now turns to their final preseason tune-up at home against the New Orleans Pelicans on October 14.
